Archive for the ‘recession’ Category
Response to Meltzer on Depression comparisons
Unlike any since the Depression
- Categories:
- Monetary policy
[Greg Ip] IN MY many years of reporting on the Federal Reserve, I have turned more times than I can count to Allan Meltzer. Volume One of his history of the Federal Reserve (he’s still working on Volume Two) is one of the most thumbed books on my shelf, and I consider him one of the leading authorities on 20th century economic history. Naturally I was intrigued by his criticism of comparisons between the current period and the Great Depression in the Wall Street Journal.
It’s a fascinating piece but I have several qualms with it. Read the rest of this entry »
Signs of economic cheer: The sun also rises
The original article is linked here.
GREG IP plus another Economist correspondent
From The Economist print edition
The economy may be pulling out of recession but unemployment is still surprisingly high. Celebrations should be delayed
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WHEN Barack Obama visited Elkhart, Indiana, in early February, a few weeks after his inauguration, it was a sombre affair. In the previous 12 months the area’s unemployment rate had more than tripled to 18.3 %. The president pleaded for the passage of a massive fiscal stimulus, insisting that “doing nothing is not an option.” By the time he returned to Elkhart on August 5th he was quite a bit sunnier. Local factories are “coming back to life”, he proclaimed. A few days earlier he had declared the economy to have done “measurably better” than expected.
Mr Obama’s good spirits are well grounded: America’s recession appears to be coming to an end. Read the rest of this entry »
America’s economy: The second derivative may be turning positive
Feb 19th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition
When the going gets tough, the tough get their maths books out
MANY of the diehard optimists on Wall Street have been beaten to a pulp by now, but those still standing have fallen back on a nifty bit of calculus. The second derivative, they say, is turning positive. That means that although the economy is spiralling down, it is doing so more slowly. Read the rest of this entry »
GDP: Even worse than it looks
Jan 30th 2009
From Economist.com
America’s economy shrank sharply in the fourth quarter. There are few reasons for optimism
The original article appears here.
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IT IS a measure of the prevailing gloom that the worst economic performance in 26 years could still be described as better than expected. Real gross domestic product fell at an annual rate of 3.8% in the fourth quarter, below the decline of 5% or more that many economists had anticipated.
However, there is precious little reason for optimism. Read the rest of this entry »
George Bush’s legacy
This was cowritten with my colleague, Washington Bureau Chief Adrian Wooldridge
The frat boy ships out
From The Economist print edition
Few people will mourn the departure of the 43rd president
HE LEAVES the White House as one of the least popular and most divisive presidents in American history. At home, his approval rating has been stuck in the 20s for months; abroad, George Bush has presided over the most catastrophic collapse in America’s reputation since the second world war. The American economy is in deep recession, brought on by a crisis that forced Mr Bush to preside over huge and unpopular bail-outs. 
America is embroiled in two wars, one of which Mr Bush launched against the tide of world opinion. The Bush family name, once among the most illustrious in American political life, is now so tainted that Jeb, George’s younger brother, recently decided not to run for the Senate from Florida. A Bush relative describes family gatherings as “funeral wakes”.
Few people would have predicted this litany of disasters when Mr Bush ran for the presidency in 2000. Read the rest of this entry »
Housing, Auto Slumps May Defy Usual Role as Recession Harbingers
The Wall Street Journal
WASHINGTON — New home construction is plummeting. Car sales are weakening. Investors have driven long-term interest rates well below the short-term rates set by the Federal Reserve. All these factors are present today, and all have been precursors of past recessions.
But the U.S. central bank and much of Wall Street are now betting that the old rules don’t apply, and that a recession next year, while possible, is unlikely.
“This time will be different,” Ed Leamer, who heads the forecasting center at the University of California at Los Angeles’s Anderson School of Management, predicts in a report. “This time the problems in housing will stay in housing.” It’s a prediction, he admits, that “keeps us up at night.” Read the rest of this entry »
