Greg Ip

Articles by The Economist’s U.S. Economics Editor

Did Barack Obama lose a political battle but win a war?

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Dec 7th 2010, 19:47 by G.I. | WASHINGTON

[Greg Ip] THE number crunchers have had their first stab at Monday’s tax deal and the economic impact is impressive. Goldman Sachs now thinks the economy will grow as much as one percentage points faster next year than its current forecast of 2.7%, which was bumped up from 2% only a week ago. JPMorgan has raised its 2011 forecast (fourth quarter compared to a year earlier) to 3.5%, from 3%. Moody’s sees growth next year at 4%. All of these forecasts imply some decline in the unemployment rate.

In my initial post last night I put the cost of the package at about $800 billion in 2011; that was an error (since corrected). The cost is spread over two years. The figure is obviously preliminary. Moreover, the majority of that is continuation of existing policy.

The entire, original post is linked here.


Written by gregip

December 7, 2010 at 12:30 pm

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